Accuracy Monitor

Overall MAPE

12.7%

Lower is better

Best Method

SARIMA

8.4% MAPE

Most Improved

Atlas Motors

+3.2 pts this month

Auto-Switched SKUs

2

Model switches this month

MAPE Trend — Last 12 Months by Brand

Lower MAPE = better forecast accuracy

Forecast Accuracy by Method

Average MAPE per method (lower = better)

Forecast vs Actuals — May 2025

Each dot = one SKU. Diagonal = perfect forecast.

Class A Class B Class C

Accuracy Detail — May 2025

SKUPart NameBrandMethodForecastActualError %Bias
ATL-001Engine Oil FilterAtlas MotorsSARIMA85823.5%-3.5%
ATL-002Air Filter ElementAtlas MotorsXGBoost62654.8%+4.8%
ATL-003Front Brake PadAtlas MotorsARIMA-LSTM45426.7%-6.7%
VTX-001Engine Timing BeltVertex AutoSARIMA72702.8%-2.8%
VTX-002Cabin Air FilterVertex AutoXGBoost55585.5%+5.5%
SWT-001Fuel Injector NozzleSwiftTechSARIMA182010%+10%